The current official mintage figure for the 2020 WW2 $2 coin is low. As a result, people are speculating that this coin will become valuable in the future. This has led to inflated values for the coin.
The first point to make is that the current mintage of 600,000 is not that low. That is a lot of coins, especially when compared to many of the pre-decimal coins. Many pre-decimal coins have been melted. Therefore, the mintage figures over-estimate the actual availability of these coins.
The mint report can and most likely will in my opinion be updated next year with more WW2 coins. The mintage of 600,000 is not set in stone regardless of what others will tell you to make a sale.
The other point is that the value of the coin is at its peak. If the mintages don’t change, I don’t see much growth room for the coin over the short term. An example of this is the 2019 IRB and JC 50c coins. These coins had mintages of 70,000 (JC) and 210,000 (IRB) respectively. It was an open secret that the mintages would increase. Following the release of last year’s mint report in which the figures were adjusted to 870,000 for the JC and 1,050,000 for the IRB, the market crashed. These coins are still relatively low mintage. The question becomes why did the market crash then? Well, all the risk was held by those holding the coins. As soon as the numbers increased, they were no longer ‘super-low mintage’ in the minds of investors and buyers. Currently, the value of the $2 World War Two coin, is speculative any likely increase in official production numbers will lead to this coin also losing value. The only person who wins is the one who sold you the coin. I haven’t bought any WW2 coins since the last mintage report and I will not be doing so.
The sad reality is that this is the type of situation where the secondary market of non-registered businesses makes a fortune. It is a great shame as they have the experience and knowledge to know that the buyer is going to most likely lose out in the end. This is why I implore collectors to contact reputable dealers and make relationships with them. While we make a margin on the items we sell, we are also not held prisoner to speculative purchases like unregistered dealers as we can buy inventory wholesale.
We are always happy to answer the questions of people interested in collecting coins just as most dealers are. Our businesses rely on people retaining interest and passion for this hobby and it’s in our own self-interest to give our best advice when a customer has a question. I will leave a quote that I should have taken more seriously when I was starting out as a coin dealer from someone with decades of experience.
“DON’T SPECULATE ON MINTAGES!”